LT. The initials that once stood for the most feared linebacker in the history of football now represent the most feared running back since Barry Sanders. LaDainian Tomlinson has the uncanny athleticism to dodge tacklers, throw tight spirals, break through defenders’ tackles, and catch out of the backfield.

And after the 2006 season, everyone confidently predicted Tomlinson would be the consensus first overall pick in every fantasy league under the sun for the 2007 season. After all, a record setting 186 points (the 755 of football) and 28 rushing touchdowns allows a prognosticator to make those sorts of predictions.

And they weren’t wrong. LT has been on the cover of just about every fantasy publication and on the tip of the tongue of every fantasy owner with the first overall pick in their respective draft.

No doubt Tomlinson deserves it. But will he fulfill the prophesy of the experts? Will he retain his thrown of Fantasy MVP?

Or will someone else take the honor in 2007?

Not to say that the rushing touchdowns record will be broken again in 2007. On the contrary, I don’t expect any running back to exceed 23 touchdowns. But you see, there is a contender.

His name? Steven Jackson.

The 6′2 232 pound nightmare in St. Louis is part of one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses. His abilities are rare. His cast is solid. And in 2006, his third NFL season, he finished third in fantasy points.

What if 2007 sees an improvement in production? Can a player improve upon a 2300 yard, 16 touchdown season?

Will he need to improve?

The Evidence

Tomlinson’s 2006 season earned him MVP, rightfully so. But it was the first time in his 6 year career that he scored more than 20 touchdowns and the first time he ran for more than 1700 yards.

In other words, don’t expect a repeat.

There is nowhere for Tomlinson to go but down in 2007. Fortunately, his free fall won’t be far.

But what if he only gains 2100 yards from scrimmage (amazing that I used the word “only” in this situation, but LT has changed how we project) and scores 20 touchdowns. It’s not improbable. In fact, it’s likely.

That’s right. Likely.

Look at a couple players who have peaked in the past:

Priest Holmes

| 2003 kan |  16 |   320   1420    4.4   27 |    74    690   9.3    0 |
| 2004 kan |   8 |   196    892    4.6   14 |    19    187   9.8    1 |

Shaun Alexander

| 2005 sea |  16 |   370   1880    5.1   27 |    15     78   5.2    1 |
| 2006 sea |  10 |   252    896    3.6    7 |    12     48   4.0    0 |

Not that Tomlinson will follow exactly in their footsteps, but a season of 2100 yards and 20 touchdowns is something I feel confident projecting.

Numbers like that are matchable, if not passable. Jackson himself could gather 2200 yards — he had 800 receiving yards last season! — and potentially 20+ scores.

The Conclusion

Am I trying to convince you to not take LT first? Heck no. You’re safe picking LT first overall in your draft. In fact, you must pick LT first in your draft. Unless you have nerves of steel — and don’t mind being teased — pick him. He’s a sure-fire top 3 player and you won’t be ripped for drafting him.

If you have the number two overall pick, however, confidently send in for Jackson and wait. This year, Goliath falls to another.

Photo: Courtesy Squibkick.com

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