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Big name running backs in new places

Jul 7th 2007
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Travis Henry goes to Denver

Several big-name running backs exchanged jerseys this offseason and all will be starters with their new squad. But which are poised to break out? And just as importantly, which should be avoided?

Enter these five players:

Oakland RaidersDominic Rhodes — After years of playing in Indianapolis as the team’s number two back, Dominic Rhodes is being given the opportunity to start over both LaMont Jordan (last season’s starter) and Michael Bush in Oakland. The latter is still recovering from injury, and the word at this point is that he may be rested for a good portion of the season.

Unfortunately, because he has been suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, Rhodes won’t see any on-field action until week four. That’s something owners will definitely need to keep in mind when considering him for their teams.

And remember, the Raiders’ offense last season was the worst in the NFL. Don’t expect a radical shift, despite the offseason work Oakland did accomplish. Acquiring Rhodes was a shrewd move, but he’ll be running behind a porous offensive line, one that allowed 72 sacks and helped create the 29th ranked rushing offense.

Conclusion: Depending on the depth of your league, Rhodes isn’t worth a draft pick. At most he’ll play only 12 games alongside a relatively pathetic offense, and even then he isn’t a fantasy starter.

Cleveland BrownsJamal Lewis – After years of watching Jamal Lewis run up, over, and around their defense, it’s safe to assume the Cleveland Browns’ will be happy to see him on their sideline this season. In 12 regular season games against the Browns, Lewis managed to rack up 1524 yards rushing on an astounding 5.6 yard per carry average. And don’t forget his record-setting performance in 2003: 295 yards rushing on 30 carries.

The ultimate hope of the Browns is that Lewis can deliver that kind of thrashing to opponents in 2007. Doing so would mean succeeding where others haven’t; the Browns ranked 31 last season when they managed a mere 1335 yards.

It won’t be easy to go against the grain of Cleveland’s recent history, not in his new environment. The team is very much engulfed in the rebuilding process, with inexperience abounding. And though Joe Thomas promises to bring size and athleticism to the team’s left tackle position, it’s uncertain how he will respond in his first NFL season.

Jamal Lewis himself is anything but a sure-bet for the Browns. The popular opinion is that his career is on the decline; he hasn’t had a rushing average above 3.6 since 2004 and he’s scored only 13 times over the past two seasons. That said, at times, 2006 did seem reminiscent of his earlier days.

Conclusion: The Cleveland Browns are in a difficult division, playing both Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each season. Expect at least 1200 yards and 7 scores out of him.

Houston TexansAhman Green — The Texans struggled mightily last season to create a running game. Dominic Davis was placed on the IR prior to the season, leaving Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado, and Wali Lundy to fill the void. Unfortunately, none of the aforementioned running backs is talented enough to start in the NFL.

To remedy this, the Texans decided to spend this offseason pursuing runners. What they walked away with was an asthmatic Ahman Green who hasn’t carried more than 300 times since 2003.

But fantasy owners should consider: Green’s hefty salary ($8 million this year) strongly suggests he will be handing the vast majority of the carries while Gado, Dayne, and Lundy provide support only when necessary.

Conclusion: Being the team’s clear-cut starter, Green is worthy of a RB3, possibly RB2 spot on your roster (depending on your league’s depth).

Baltimore RavensWillis McGahee — After a couple seasons watching Jamal Lewis pound defenses for three and a half yards per carry, the Ravens decided it was time to go in a different direction.

Enter Willis McGahee.

Though he never really broke through with the Bills, McGahee did provide some flashes that suggest he could excel in the right environment. Interestingly, McGahee is an elusive runner, something that seems uncharacteristic of the Ravens. Though you might associate the team with the type of running back who would prefer to run through a defender rather than around, McGahee brings something entirely different to the table.

Not to say that it’s a bad thing. On the contrary, I expect good things to come from this acquisition. McGahee is now on roster with a team that is on the verge of contending for a Super Bowl, and much will depend on his ability to carry the football.

Conclusion: Though he never realized his potential with the Bills, McGahee did have his moments. And being relied on as the team’s primary runner — with little to no competition — McGahee should receive plenty of touches. At the very least, you can expect RB2-type numbers.

Denver BroncosTravis Henry — After shuffling a half-dozen starting backs through the offense to find Terrell Davis’s successor, the Denver Broncos may have finally acquired someone who fits the bill.

The signing of Travis Henry reflected the overall gameplan the Broncos had walking into the offseason: add experience to compensate for Jay Cutler’s lack. It meant letting go of Tatum Bell — who never really fit in with Denver’s system — in order to strive forward.

Entering his seventh NFL season, Henry has seen the ups and downs of a career. 2002-2003 saw him as a top 10 fantasy running back, scoring a combined 25 touchdowns and running for 2794 yards.

But injury befell him in 2004 and he didn’t manage to score another touchdown until last season, despite appearing in more than 19 games and receiving 205 touches. But he did rise again last season to a good, though not great, form. In 14 games he carried 270 times for 1211 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Granted, those aren’t great numbers, but imagine him in an environment where backs are bred to run among the best in the league. Even running backs who would otherwise fail with another squad (Olandis Gary, anyone?) can manage to gain 1000 yards with seemingly little talent.

The Denver Broncos are among the best teams in the NFL for running backs. 2006 was the first time since 2001 that the team didn’t rank in the top five in rushing yards, and they ranked 8th last season.

And Henry isn’t simply joining a good team; he’s teaming up with a franchise on the brink of a Super Bowl.

Conclusion: Henry is a top 10 fantasy back, simply because he’s in Denver. More than ever the team will rely on the rushing game to take some of the pressure off Cutler, meaning Henry will get a good number of touches. Expect a 300+ carry season and 1300+ yards rushing.


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