Two years ago McNabb would have been considered one of the premier fantasy football quarterbacks. He was coming off the best season of his career in 2004, when he threw for 3875 yards and 31 touchdowns, not to mention Terrell Owens hadn’t yet severed the team’s locker room.

But since 2004 fantasy owners have pounded their heads into many a wall in frustration. McNabb has missed the second half of each of the past two seasons, 7 games in 2005 and 6 games in 2006, and he’s only played 3 16-game seasons in his 8-year career.

So, when do you draft him this year? Sure, he blew defenses up in the games he did play, but can McNabb be counted on as a fantasy team’s starting quarterback? Does the risk of injury outweigh his potential?

What can we expect as prognosticators? I expect McNabb to make it through the first half of the season and destroy opposing defenses along the way.

Check it out; last season’s week-by-week performances through week 7:

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| WK  OPP  |  CMP  ATT   PYD  TD  INT |  RSH    YD  TD |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  1  hou  |   24   35   314   3   1  |    4     7   0 |
|  2  nyg  |   27   45   350   2   0  |    4    31   0 |
|  3  sfo  |   18   33   296   2   0  |    3     1   0 |
|  4  gnb  |   16   30   288   2   0  |    5    47   2 |
|  5  dal  |   18   33   354   2   0  |    1     1   1 |
|  6  nor  |   19   32   247   2   1  |    0     0   0 |
|  7  tam  |   22   35   302   3   3  |    6    76   0 |

McNabb was on fire in those games. He threw for 300+ in 3 and at least 247 in the other four. No doubt, that is starting fantasy quarterback production. But he was injured three games later, leaving owners where? If an owner didn’t have a suitable backup he’d need to search the free agent market for a replacement or wrangle a trade late in the fantasy season. Playoffs were only a few weeks away by that point.

Could the same thing happen in 2007? Absolutely. So, what do you do?

Something I thought of while brainstorming this article: if Michael Vick is suspended for 4 or 8 games, why not draft him late as McNabb’s replacement if injury strikes? Few owners are going to waste their time with Vick, so pulling the trigger is an interesting idea if he free-falls to the last few rounds of your draft.

If that idea doesn’t suit you, I recommend drafting McNabb in an early to mid-round position. While he is an injury risk, he’ll still produce better than most starters while he does play. He’s averaged close to 275 yards passing and 2 touchdowns per start over the past three seasons of play. Those are great numbers.

3-year statistics

                 +---------------------------------------+-----------------+
                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2004 phi |  15 |   300   469  64.0  3875   8.3  31   8 |    41   220   3 |
| 2005 phi |   9 |   211   357  59.1  2507   7.0  16   9 |    25    55   1 |
| 2006 phi |  10 |   180   316  57.0  2647   8.4  18   6 |    32   212   3 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
|  TOTAL   | 104 |  1898  3259  58.2 22080   6.8 152  72 |   447  2726  24 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

Conclusion: McNabb might be an injury risk, but he’s easily worth an early to mid-round pick and the starting position on your roster. I expect him to average 250-275 yards and 2 touchdowns per start in 2007.

Audience participation: when do you plan to draft McNabb? What do you think of the Vick idea (please, don’t be too brutal)?

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