By now the national consensus is that running back LaDainian Tomlinson is the best overall fantasy football player. And why not assume that? After a record breaking season in 2006, Tomlinson remains in the prime of his career. But it’s time owners look to number two overall and consider the available options.
Meet the contenders:
- Steven Jackson; St. Louis Rams; RB
- Larry Johnson; Kansas City Chiefs; RB
- Frank Gore; San Francisco 49ers; RB
- Shaun Alexander; Seattle Seahawks; RB
- Peyton Manning; Indianapolis Colts; QB
Before fantasy owners go crazy that I’ve included Peyton Manning this list, let me explain. Most leagues award quarterbacks 3-4 points per passing touchdown, but there are a few that will award 6 points. If Manning goes on a tear and throws for 30-35 touchdowns in 2007 (not unlikely), he will score 180-210 points on touchdowns alone. Most running backs will be lucky to make 20 scores in 2007 for 120 points.
This is just one more reason fantasy owners should fully understand their leagues’ rules. But that’s a topic for another day.
With that said, let’s continue by breaking down the other four candidates statistically and taking a look at why you should love him and why you should second-guess drafting him at number two overall.
Steven Jackson
Statistics
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 stl | 14 | 134 673 5.0 4 | 19 189 9.9 0 |
| 2005 stl | 15 | 254 1046 4.1 8 | 43 320 7.4 2 |
| 2006 stl | 16 | 346 1528 4.4 13 | 90 806 9.0 3 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
| TOTAL | 45 | 734 3247 4.4 25 | 152 1315 8.7 5 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
Why you should love him: Jackson is in an offense that will produce in 2007. His career is on the upswing and he showed last season he can handle 340+ carries in a season. Not to mention he caught 90 passes. Leagues that award per catch should take a close look at Jackson.
Why you should second-guess drafting him: The downside with Jackson is very limited. He’s built well and he’s in a system that will get him his carries and catches out of the backfield.
Larry Johnson
Statistics
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 kan | 10 | 120 581 4.8 9 | 22 278 12.6 2 |
| 2005 kan | 16 | 336 1750 5.2 20 | 33 343 10.4 1 |
| 2006 kan | 16 | 416 1789 4.3 17 | 41 410 10.0 2 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
| TOTAL | 48 | 892 4205 4.7 47 | 97 1033 10.6 5 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
Why you should love him: LJ, as everyone at your draft party is certain to reference him by, will carry the Chiefs in 2007. Without certainty at quarterback and a continued lack of receiving depth or talent, the Chiefs will turn to Johnson to carry the load and win games.
Why you should second-guess drafting him: The Chiefs are severely overrunning Johnson. No back should be expected to handle 400+ carries in a season. Herm Edwards is the most conservative coach in the NFL, someone who believes in establishing a running game. And that’s fine, but if the Chiefs run Johnson more than 330-340 times in 2007, he’ll be at risk for injury.
Frank Gore
Statistics
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2005 sfo | 14 | 127 608 4.8 3 | 15 131 8.7 0 |
| 2006 sfo | 16 | 312 1695 5.4 8 | 61 485 8.0 1 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
| TOTAL | 30 | 439 2303 5.2 11 | 76 616 8.1 1 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
Why you should love him: Frank Gore showed last season that he has loads of potential in the NFL. He ran for a great average and handled his first full season as a starter admirably.
Why you should second-guess drafting him: San Francisco doesn’t have a passing game that will take a lot of pressure off Gore. And despite a great showing in 2006, you’ll note he didn’t see much of the endzone in comparison with other backs on this list. The 49ers will need to step it up passing the football in 2007 if Gore owners want to see some touchdowns.
Shaun Alexander
Statistics
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 sea | 16 | 353 1696 4.8 16 | 23 170 7.4 4 |
| 2005 sea | 16 | 370 1880 5.1 27 | 15 78 5.2 1 |
| 2006 sea | 10 | 252 896 3.6 7 | 12 48 4.0 0 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
| TOTAL | 106 | 1969 8713 4.4 96 | 200 1435 7.2 11 |
+———-+—–+————————–+————————-+
Why you should love him: The Madden curse is behind him, right? That’s reason enough to breathe a sigh of relief. That aside, Alexander is in a great position to succeed in 2007, if his health prevails. Seattle remains in a fairly weak division and the offense will be solid, taking pressure off Alexander.
Why you should second-guess drafting him: Last year’s injury-plagued season is still cause for concern. Alexander hits 30 late August, the age that seems to break most running backs and significantly deteriorate their performances.
The verdict: Steven Jackson is in the best position to succeed in 2007. He’s built to carry a heavy load, though owners shouldn’t expect his carries to balloon to 350; 320 is more realistic. He’s in a great system and there is no cause for concern at this point.
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2 Comments
After Green leaving K.C Johnson’s stock just went down. I like where you have Steven Jackson but don’t be surprised if a back like Willie Parker has the better season.
-FanProphet
I hope the Chiefs don’t wear out LJ with another 400 carry season, but it may be inevitable because, like you noted, Green is gone and Croyle/Huard may struggle without receiving targets.
Good point with Parker too.
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